12

Wager

Summary
According to Wager, the first future will be capitalism. The characteristic is that there will be losers as well as winners. The gap between rich countries and poor countries will be getting bigger. This society will cause much anger of the losers, and this society will cost high. Then, the second future, socialism society will come. In this society, everyone will be equal to each other. There will be one government over the world so that there will be no war. However, everyone will not be equal actually. Some elite people, such as politicians will have power to control the society. Then, people will notice that they do not need the government. The third future, communism society will come. In that society, people will make small communities. They will start doing everything within their communities. People will be self-sufficient and self-governing. There will be no war, no gap between people or community. Also, in the 4th future, people will move to the space. Technology will make people possible to live on somewhere in the space.

Reaction
I really have critical reaction to especially 3rd future. Wager said that people will make small communities in the 3rd future, and they can do whatever they do. I really want to ask "how small is it?". If it is as small as family, they will be not power to do everything by themselves. If it is as small(almost big) as a city or prefecture, it will be almost same as a country because people cannot communicate with every people in the same city, nor people can meet everyone face to face. Wager asked "Am I naive?". I want to answer "Yes, you are naive." He trusts people too much. People cannot be kind to anyone around them especially when they are not friends with each other. For example, some students tease their classmate even if they are in the same class. This does happen among adults. Each person like each the most. People cannot do something for others when they lose benefits. Wager is too naive and he should be critical. Therefore, the 3rd future seems impossible.